Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered mixed results: revenue fell 10.7% year over year to $552.8M, GAAP EPS was $(1.09) due to $44.9M of non-cash charges, while adjusted EBITDA improved to $16.4M from $5.0M YoY; consolidated crush margin swung positive to $26.3M aided by a one-time $22.6M RIN sale .
Management guided to mid-teens consolidated crush margins and positive free cash flow in Q3/Q4, with carbon capture monetization expected to contribute ~$20–$25M in Q4 and ~$150M annualized in 2026 from Nebraska plants, up from ~$100M prior on favorable policy changes (45Z extension and ILUC removal) .
Strategic actions continue: exit of non-core assets (GP Turnkey Tharaldson sale for $25M), extension of $127.5M mezzanine notes to 9/15/2026, Eco-Energy marketing transition improving working capital by >$50M; plant utilization was 99% in Q2 .
Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q2 2025 was unavailable via our tool; estimate comparisons are therefore not provided and may need to be updated when accessible.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Operational execution was strong with 99% utilization across nine operating ethanol plants; management highlighted structural improvements and a fast, numbers-driven culture driving efficiency gains and cost reductions .
Cost savings ahead of plan: company is on pace to exceed $50M annualized savings; corporate and trade SG&A targeted to a low-$40M run-rate by year-end, supporting earnings leverage when margins firm .
Favorable policy and carbon strategy momentum: extension of 45Z through 2029, ILUC penalty removal, and North American feedstock ring-fencing reinforce low-CI strategy; carbon monetization outlook raised to ~$150M in 2026 (Nebraska) with Q4 startup on track .

What Went Wrong

GAAP loss widened: net loss of $72.2M vs. $24.4M YoY, driven by $31.0M loss on asset/equity sale and $10.7M asset impairments; interest expense rose $6.4M YoY on warrant accounting and reduced capitalized interest .
Volume and segment headwinds: ethanol gallons sold fell to 193.6M (−7.2% YoY); agribusiness & energy services revenue dropped 68.8% YoY due to ceasing third-party marketing for Tharaldson .
Protein markets subdued: management cited ongoing pressure from soy crush capacity additions; renewable corn oil volumes were down YoY though pricing remains a bright spot tied to renewable diesel demand .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$584.0	$601.5	$552.8
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(54.9)	$(72.9)	$(72.2)
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.86)	$(1.14)	$(1.09)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(18.2)	$(24.2)	$16.4

Consolidated Crush Margin ($USD Millions)	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Crush Margin	$(15.5)	$(14.7)	$26.3

Segment Revenues ($USD Thousands)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Ethanol Production	$525,443	$527,153
Agribusiness & Energy Services	$100,949	$31,531
Intersegment Eliminations	$(7,567)	$(5,855)
Total Revenues	$618,825	$552,829

Segment Gross Margin ($USD Thousands)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Ethanol Production	$30,390	$33,490
Agribusiness & Energy Services	$7,433	$8,080
Total Gross Margin	$37,823	$41,570

Selected Operating Data	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Ethanol (gallons, thousands)	209,540	195,328	193,571
Distillers Grains (equiv. dried tons)	469	417	413
Ultra-High Protein (tons)	54	68	66
Renewable Corn Oil (pounds, thousands)	73,376	64,263	65,231
Corn Consumed (bushels, thousands)	71,221	66,264	65,312

Non-GAAP and notable items: Q2 adjusted EBITDA benefited from a one-time sale of accumulated RINs ($22.6M) and was offset by impairments and restructuring; consolidated ethanol crush margin definition includes ethanol segment operating income before D&A, plus certain fees and nonethanol activities .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated Crush Margin Outlook	Q3 2025	Positive EBITDA remainder of year (directional)	Mid-teens consolidated crush margins; strongly positive free cash flow	Raised specificity
Carbon Monetization (Nebraska)	FY 2026	~$100M incl. voluntary credits	~$150M (policy-driven uplift)	Raised
Carbon Contribution at Start-up	Q4 2025	Carbon start-up in Q4 2025 (directional)	~$20–$25M contribution in Q4	New quantitative
Corporate & Trade SG&A Run-rate	Exit 2025	Low-$40M run-rate by YE25	Reaffirmed low-$40M by YE25	Maintained
Total SG&A Target (Consolidated)	FY 2025	Directional savings	~$93M consolidated SG&A target	New quantitative
CapEx (ex carbon equipment)	H2 2025	Not specified	≈$10M remainder of 2025	New
Normalized Tax Rate	Go-forward	Not specified	23%–24% normalized tax rate	New
Plant Utilization	Q3 2025	100% in Q1 actual	Mid-to-high 90% utilization expected	Lower but robust
Working Capital Benefit	2025	≥$50M target	>$50M realized (Eco-Energy transition)	Achieved/raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q4 2024 (Prior-2)	Q1 2025 (Prior-1)	Q2 2025 (Current)	Trend
Carbon Capture / 45Z	Nebraska carbon permits/ROW secured; Q2H25 start-up; 45Z GREET favorable	Construction commenced; Q4’25 start-up on track	Policy tailwinds (45Z to 2029, ILUC penalty removed); start-up early Q4; ~$20–$25M in Q4; ~$150M in 2026	Strengthening monetization visibility
Cost Reduction / SG&A	Launched $50M cost program	~$45M achieved; low-$40M corporate/trade SG&A run-rate by YE	Exceed $50M target; consolidated SG&A ~$93M target	Ahead of plan
Marketing / Working Capital	N/A	Eco-Energy announced	>$50M working capital benefit realized; supply chain efficiencies	Operational benefits realized
Hedging / Risk Mgmt	N/A	Risk Committee; disciplined hedging	65% crushed for Q3; mid-teens margins; corn oil pricing tailwind	More proactive hedging
Protein Markets	UHP expansion; market oversupplied	UHP production up YoY	Pressure from soy crush; diversify customers; first bulk vessel sequence 60 to Chile	Mixed; tactical pivot
Exports / Macro	Idled plants/constructive stocks outlook	N/A	Exports strengthening (Canada, India, EU); potential tighter stocks; trade negotiations supportive	Improving demand backdrop
Strategic Review / Leadership	Strategic review underway	Executive Committee leading; CEO search ongoing	Strategic review active; options incl. company sale; CEO appointment (post-quarter)	Governance progress

Management Commentary

“We’ve streamlined the business and sharpened execution… with 99% utilization across the operating platform… on pace to exceed the $50 million in annualized savings target” — Michelle Mapes, Interim PEO .
“Our annualized EBITDA contribution from our decarbonization strategy will be greater than $150,000,000 annually for 2026 from our Advantage Nebraska plants alone” — Michelle Mapes .
“Extending the maturity of our near-term debt enhances flexibility as we work toward the execution of our decarbonization initiatives” — CFO Phil Boggs .
“We are forecasting to maintain mid to high 90% utilization for the remainder of Q3” — EVP Ops & Tech .

Q&A Highlights

Carbon monetization uplift: 2026 raised to ~$150M (Nebraska), Q4’25 ~$20–$25M start-up contribution; uplift driven by ILUC removal (+5–6 CI points) and operational CI improvements .
Hedging posture: Q3 ~65% crushed (moving toward ~70%); locking margins across ethanol/corn/DDG/corn oil; Q3 EBITDA margin expected mid-teens .
Cash flow: positive base free cash flow expected in Q3/Q4; ~$23–$24M Tharaldson JV proceeds received in July (Q3 cash) .
Export strength: higher shipments to Canada/India/EU; potential tighter stocks with fall maintenance; policy/trade talks supportive .
Protein strategy: shifting mix toward higher-value Sequence 60 for aquaculture and strategic partnerships; operational improvements lowering Sequence production OpEx .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025 (Revenue, EPS, EBITDA) was unavailable via our data tool at time of analysis; as a result, beat/miss vs. Street cannot be determined and should be updated when S&P data is accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term setup improves: management has locked in mid-teens crush margins for Q3, expects positive free cash flow, and sees export demand strengthening; hedging and corn oil pricing are tailwinds .
Carbon is the structural catalyst: Q4 start-up positions carbon credits to contribute ~$20–$25M in Q4 and ~$150M annualized in 2026 (Nebraska), materially reshaping earnings power .
Cost discipline is real: >$50M annualized savings achieved with visibility to consolidated SG&A ~$93M and corporate/trade SG&A low-$40M run-rate by YE25, amplifying margin leverage .
Balance sheet flexibility improved: mezzanine notes extended to 9/15/2026; liquidity supported by working capital release via Eco-Energy and asset sales (Tharaldson) .
Watch protein markets and mix: soy crush expansion pressures pricing; pivot to Sequence 60 and diversified end-markets aims to defend margins .
Execution risk remains around carbon monetization timing and Treasury guidance for 45Z, but management indicates counterparties and pricing indications support their targets .
Update Street comparisons upon availability of S&P Global estimates to calibrate positioning; current narrative is driven by carbon and cost actions rather than headline GAAP EPS .

Additional Data and Notes

One-time items impacting Q2: $22.6M RIN sale boosted consolidated crush margin; non-cash charges ($31.0M loss on asset/equity method investment; $10.7M impairment) widened GAAP loss; restructuring costs were $2.5M .
Liquidity at 6/30/25: $152.7M total cash and restricted cash; $258.5M revolver availability; corporate liquidity $93.3M; total debt $508.2M .
Segment profitability: ethanol production adjusted EBITDA fell YoY to $8.99M; agribusiness & energy services adjusted EBITDA rose YoY to $5.03M in Q2 .

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary